AGP Executive Report

Trade Links: The Gradiška–Novi Varoš crossing is now fully operational, easing customs traffic between Bosnia and Herzegovina and Croatia after staffing changes ended delays. EU Funding: Bosnia risks losing €373.9 million from the EU Growth Plan as the reform deadline approaches; the EU has separately granted €1 million to improve customs and border operations. Economic Outlook: The IMF expects slower growth and rising inflation, adding pressure on households and businesses. Business Governance: The Federation’s Supreme Court barred Development Minister Vojin Mijatović from office after an indictment over alleged favoritism in awarding nearly one million KM in grants. Local Support: Sarajevo Canton set aside one million KM to help businesses replace solid-fuel heating, while dairy farmers are demanding urgent protection for domestic production.

Business Support: Sarajevo Canton has set aside 1 million marks to help companies replace solid-fuel heating, covering up to half the cost of new equipment. EU Funding: Bosnia and Herzegovina risks losing €373.9 million from the EU Growth Plan if it misses reform deadlines by December 31; a separate €1 million EU grant will support customs and border operations. Economic Outlook: The IMF expects slower growth and rising inflation in BiH. Agriculture: Dairy farmers are warning of shutdowns and calling for urgent protection of domestic production. Trade and Logistics: Modernisation at the Port of Brčko has sped up cargo handling and strengthened its financial performance.

EU Funding: Bosnia and Herzegovina will receive €1 million in EU support to improve customs and border operations, but risks losing €373.9 million from the Growth Plan if it misses reform deadlines by December 31. Business Support: Sarajevo Canton has set aside 1 million marks to help businesses replace solid-fuel heating, covering up to half the equipment costs. Economic Outlook: The IMF expects growth to recover to 2.6% in 2027 and inflation to ease to 3.3%, but projects the current-account deficit will widen to 4.9% of GDP this year. Public Finance: The Federation plans to raise 40 million marks through nine-month treasury bills, with an auction scheduled for October 20.

EU Funding: Bosnia and Herzegovina risks losing €373.9 million from the EU Growth Plan if it misses the December 31 reform deadline. Key laws remain unpassed and a chief EU negotiator has yet to be appointed. Economic Outlook: The IMF forecasts growth slowing to 2.3% in 2026, while inflation rises to 5%; growth is expected to recover to 2.6% next year. Public Finance: The Federation plans to raise BAM 40 million through nine-month treasury bills, with an auction scheduled for October 20. Retail Sector: Debate has returned over the Federation’s Sunday shop closures. The Trade Ministry says turnover has not fallen, while critics argue the impact on local communities needs closer examination.

Economic Outlook: The IMF expects Bosnia and Herzegovina’s growth to slow to 2.3% in 2026, with inflation rising to 5%; growth is forecast to reach 2.6% in 2027 as inflation eases. Public Finance: The Federation plans to auction BAM 40 million in nine-month treasury bills on October 20, offering investors short-term government debt. EU Funding: Bosnia risks losing €373.9 million from the EU Growth Plan if it fails to advance reforms, an important source of investment and economic support. Retail: The Federation’s non-working Sunday rule is back under debate. Officials say turnover has not fallen overall, while critics call for closer scrutiny of effects on individual communities and businesses. Business Expansion: BALFIN Group plans to bring Danish retailer Flying Tiger Copenhagen to Bosnia and Herzegovina in early 2027, as part of a wider regional expansion. Agriculture: Dairy farmers are warning of possible shutdowns and calling for urgent protection of domestic production.

Economic Outlook: The IMF expects Bosnia and Herzegovina’s growth to slow to 2.3% in 2026, while inflation rises to 5%. It forecasts a modest rebound to 2.6% growth and lower inflation in 2027. Public Finance: The Federation plans to raise 40 million BAM through nine-month treasury bills, with an auction set for October 20. EU Funding: Bosnia risks losing €373.9 million from the EU Growth Plan unless it advances key reforms. Dairy Crisis: Farmers warn that falling purchase prices and imports are forcing farms to close. From January to August, Bosnia imported 33.35 million kilograms of milk and dairy products worth 159.7 million BAM. Retail: Debate has resurfaced over Sunday shop closures in the Federation. The Trade Ministry says current data show no overall fall in turnover, while workers’ representatives defend the guaranteed day of rest.

Energy Security: Bosnia and Herzegovina will join a new regional oil coordination group, sharing supply and demand data and assessing shortages as global prices rise and supply chains face disruption. Retail Expansion: BALFIN Group and Flying Tiger Copenhagen plan 87 stores in Romania, Bulgaria and Croatia over five years; Bosnia and Herzegovina and Montenegro are slated for entry in early 2027. Dairy Pressure: Farmers warn that falling milk prices and rising imports are pushing farms to close. From January to August, BiH imported 33.35 million kilograms of milk and dairy products worth BAM 159.7 million. EU Funding at Risk: Bosnia and Herzegovina could lose €373.9 million from the EU Growth Plan if it fails to meet reform requirements, putting a major source of investment support in jeopardy.

Retail Investment: BALFIN Group plans to bring Danish retailer Flying Tiger Copenhagen to Bosnia and Herzegovina in early 2027, after expanding the partnership into Romania, Bulgaria and Croatia. EU Funding: Bosnia risks losing €373.9 million from the EU Growth Plan unless it accelerates reforms, including justice laws and appointing an EU chief negotiator. Agriculture: Dairy farmers warn that low farm-gate prices and rising imports are forcing closures; 33.35 million kilograms of milk and dairy products were imported from January to August, worth BAM 159.7 million. Coalition Talks: Milorad Dodik and Dragan Čović say their parties will negotiate government formation together, leaving the pace of reforms—and access to EU funds—among the key economic stakes.

China Trade: Slower Chinese demand and tougher competition from Chinese electric-vehicle makers could affect European and Western Balkan suppliers. The EU is pairing trade protections with investment in local clean-tech production. EU Funding: Bosnia and Herzegovina risks losing €373.9 million from the EU Growth Plan unless it speeds up reforms, including justice laws and appointing a chief negotiator. The warning comes as parties begin talks on forming a government. Agriculture: Drought has cut corn yields by as much as 70–90% on some plots in Republika Srpska. Farmers are seeking fuel support and higher wheat subsidies, saying they can no longer cover costs alone. Diaspora Investment: A proposed fund would pool diaspora savings and use development-bank financing to direct investment toward national priorities, turning remittances into a more organized source of productive capital. Trade Links: Bosnia’s new honorary consulate in Antalya is expected to support stronger commercial and economic cooperation with Türkiye.

EU Funding: Bosnia and Herzegovina risks losing €373.9 million from the EU Growth Plan unless it advances reforms by year-end. With coalition talks following the election, leaders say the EU path is a priority, but rapid progress is uncertain. Agriculture: Severe drought cut corn yields by 70–90% on some Republika Srpska farms. Farmers are seeking fuel support and a wheat subsidy increase from 500 to 700 KM per hectare. Diaspora Investment: A proposed “Diaspora Hedge Fund” would pool voluntary contributions and channel them into national development priorities, turning remittances into more organized investment. Trade Ties: Bosnia’s new honorary consulate in Antalya is intended to strengthen commercial and economic cooperation with Türkiye.

Trade and Investment: Bosnia and Herzegovina has opened an honorary consulate in Antalya, with officials saying it will help expand commercial and economic ties with Turkey. EU Funding: The country risks losing up to €373.9 million from the EU Growth Plan unless it accelerates reforms, including justice laws and appointing a chief EU negotiator; some funds have already been lost to delays. Agriculture: Farmers in Republika Srpska are seeking subsidized fuel and higher wheat payments after drought cut corn yields by as much as 70–90% on some plots. Economic Priorities: In talks on forming governments, Bakir Izetbegović and Semir Efendić highlighted living standards, investment in transport and energy infrastructure, and faster reforms.

EU Funding at Risk: Bosnia and Herzegovina could lose another €373.9 million from the EU Growth Plan unless it accelerates justice and institutional reforms by year-end. The package includes grants and favourable loans, but delays have already cost the country some funding. Farmers Under Pressure: Republika Srpska farmers are seeking a drought-disaster declaration, more subsidised fuel and higher wheat subsidies, after corn yields fell by as much as 70–90% in some fields. New Investment: Bosnian manufacturer ADK plans to invest BAM 12 million in a new plant and create jobs, offering a boost to industrial growth.

Business Expansion: Cardiff-based Final Rentals, named among Europe’s fastest-growing start-ups, expanded into Bosnia and Herzegovina as part of a push from 16 to 32 countries in a year; it now operates in more than 65 markets. EU Funding: Brussels warned Bosnia’s leaders that the country risks losing €373.9 million in EU funds unless it advances reforms after the elections. Banking: Central Bank data show loans rose 14.5% year on year to BAM 31.43 billion in August, while deposits reached BAM 40.9 billion, up 1.2% from July. Investment: Bosnian manufacturer ADK plans a BAM 12 million plant investment expected to create new jobs. Regional Trade: US Senator Jeanne Shaheen called for fewer trade barriers, wider market access and stronger support for businesses across the Western Balkans.

EU Funding: Brussels has warned Bosnia and Herzegovina that stalled reforms put €373.9 million at risk. Progress could also bring the country into the Single Euro Payments Area, cutting cross-border fees by up to 94%. Banking: Central Bank figures show annual loan growth of 14.5% in August, while foreign-exchange reserves reached BAM 19.89 billion, up 11% year on year. Mining: DPM Metals says its Vareš mine is ramping up faster than expected and should exceed its 2026 production target, supporting the company’s broader growth plans. Investment: Bosnian manufacturer ADK plans to invest BAM 12 million in a new plant and create jobs. Public Spending: The Parliamentary Assembly has tendered for four vehicles worth BAM 420,000, drawing criticism as economists warn that public borrowing should fund investment, not budget gaps.

Banking: Bosnia and Herzegovina’s foreign-exchange reserves reached BAM 19.89 billion in August, up 11% year on year. Total loans rose 14.5% annually to BAM 31.43 billion, while deposits reached BAM 40.9 billion. Mining: DPM Metals reported third-quarter production of 97,000 gold-equivalent ounces and said its Vareš mine is ramping up ahead of expectations, with output expected to exceed its 2026 guidance. EU Funding: Brussels has warned Bosnia and Herzegovina risks losing €373.9 million unless it advances reforms. Progress on anti-money-laundering rules could also help unlock Single Euro Payments Area membership, potentially cutting cross-border transaction fees by up to 94%. Trade Links: Customs services are being set up at the new Gradiška crossing and the planned Rača 2 crossing, while eight crossings with Croatia have been cleared to handle international passenger traffic and declared goods.

Mining: DPM Metals says its Vareš mine is ramping up faster than expected and should exceed its 2026 production guidance, as the company reported 97,000 gold-equivalent ounces across its operations in the third quarter. EU Funding: Brussels has warned Bosnia and Herzegovina that stalled reforms put €373.9 million at risk. Completing anti-money-laundering reforms could also unlock Single Euro Payments Area access, potentially cutting cross-border transaction fees by up to 94%. Business Investment: Bosnian manufacturer ADK plans to invest BAM 12 million in a new plant and create jobs. Political Outlook: Election results point to continued ethnic-party dominance and possible institutional blockades, raising fresh concerns about the country’s reform and investment climate.